Since the peak start to turn into a depression (from the beginning of 2018), i noticed that percentage of articles related to mining is dropping constantly. I have a feeling that in a year time period (if nothing changes drastically), i will be the only solo miner left :). Here are some fact worth considering before you make up your final decision about mining.Fact No.1: electricity cost You can't payout your monthly electricity cost no matter what you mine (at the moment). Only case in which mining would be profitable for a solo miner in this situation is if he/she would have a free electricity. So, I would not consider this fact as a motivating point for someone to continue mining or get into the mining, unless above mentioned-free electricity. But (!), If you believe market will go up, put a calculation of electricity cost for a year on a paper, add cost of equipment, and calculate what price your token should achieve in a year, how many coins you will mine in that period and if that would be profitable for you. When making those calculation, avoid speculations of btc achieving 100k in one year, because it is simply not possible. Be realistic, and maybe a bit pessimistic regarding possible price :) Important point-do you think it is worth risk...Fact No.2: ROI You have to calculate ROI (return of investment) of your investment into equipment. Better equipment-->lower or faster ROI (?) -->more expensive equipment--> more tokens will be mined. You would have to do some serious calculations before investing into some quality piece of equipment. This four factors spin around one important point-do you think it is worth risk...The risk is related to next situation:Imagine you bought more expensive equipment, and price is dropping, you will need more time to achieve your ROI. If you believe price will recover, you will continue with mining. You will mine tolens that don't worth now, but could reach triple price in the future. Or not... :)Opposite situation: You buy cheap equipment, ROI you have to achieve will be longer or shorter, unless you catch a gem you will mine, and it gets recognized. In that case, you will probably have great amount of mined tokens that had low price in the beginning and untill it achieves some respect on exchanges, you will have a bag of tokens you will sell for much higher price than it was when you start mining it. But, let's be realistic and ignore that paradise scenario, because those are rare ones. So, let me get back to beginning, you bought cheap equipment, ROI is smaller (at the.moment) and you are mining with a hope your token price will rise. With this scenario you have less to loose, but also less to gain. Simply because more expensive equipment mines more tokens than a cheap one.Fact No.3 : Price of equipment Price of the equipment had significant drop comparing to the price a year ago and not to mention comparation with prices two years ago. I refer to new equipment sold by certified sellers of mining equipment, tech shops that offer a possibility of building custom made rigs and individuals who are selling their used equipment. I would call this period a "lottery for gamers". They can upgrade their pc or gaming equipment for very cheap price. Some solo miners who started mining at the peak of the price paid their equipment at such high prices, that if they did not even payout their equipment investment. And i this calculation, I did not even include electricity cost they had. So, from ROI point of view, if you start mining now, your ROI (for equipment) could be the same as it was for those who started mining at the peak.Again, there is only one question-do you think it is worth risk...To conclude, everything depends on market behaviour. I excluded situations in which you will mine some shit token that will be delisted, or total failure. Also, I excluded scenario in which you picked token that will become gem. The fact that will help you with avoiding picking shit token is if you pick asic, because they are usually made for mining some stabile/not shit tokens. On the other hand, if you will use some GPU for mining, then you will probably join some well known pool that offers some stabile tokens, and you will not risk with the ones you never heard of. Or...you will and take a risk :) (story about finding gem)I love mining, and I am mining for a long time. I did not lose my faith in crypto :) It could be I will end with spending a lot of electricity for nothing (fingers crossed-not!), but I do believe crypto has a future, the strong positive one. And I decided to continue with mining. After all, in worst possible market scenario-what is a life without some risk?! Nobody achieved anything in life because it felt from a sky...And sometimes in life you have to take a risk to change flow of constant life line. This is just my opinion. Please share yours.
In analyzing Bitcoin there are basically three departments of investigation, namely sentiment, fundamental analysis and technical analysis. As traders and investors, we are always keen to know as much as possible regarding all the details so that we can be informed and thus profit from this revolutionary cryptocurrency that is taking over the world with its admittedly wildly volatile price swings. As powerful as Bitcoin is, it’s like a wild and untamed horse, and just as many speculators have lost money, as those that have profited, even though Bitcoin has been on a lifelong overall “uptrennd”.Losing money on your Bitcoin investments seems odd, since the simplest procedure is to buy and “hodl”, or buy the dip and sell the tops. Easier said than done though, since few can predict the dip or the top, and inexperience in the market can lead some to panic sell at a loss, instead of cultivating “strong hands” and keeping the faith in the technology and its potential to change the world for the better. This tendency to sell at the wrong time is based on the first principle of analysis, namely sentiment. When sentiment is down, people get fearful and sell as they see price fall, which is understandable human nature, though it shows how easily we are swayed by emotions stoked by FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt), all of which should be avoided by the discerning investor or trader.Current sentiment – if we go by stats regarding Bitcoin-related Twitter posts – is at something of a major low point. Twitter mentions of Bitcoin are down significantly, as are Google searches, and people overall thus seem to have gone relatively quiet, which initially is a bearish indicator, for what it’s worth. So sentiment appears bearish, and sentiment – despite being the most irrational and illogical or all indicators – has a tendency to lead the herd, who invariably are usually wrong. Nothing to be done about human psychology except learn to think like a “contrarian” or at least outside the herd, or to become better informed.Now when it comes to fundamental analysis of Bitcoin, traders look at things like hash rate (which ironically is at an all time high), mining costs, financial regulation, etc. And this is where the halving comes in. The Bitcoin “halving” is part of the architecture of the Bitcoin design, given to us in the original code by Satoshi Nakamoto. Built into the design of Bitcoin are required halvings of the reward paid to miners every few hundred thousand blocks mined, which turns out to be every four years or so. The current block reward is about to be cut from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC for miners, every ten minutes. In this way it takes longer for Bitcoin to be mined as the difficulty increases, and the price rises. This is the perfect math behind the design of Bitcoin that makes it deflationary, and that makes it work as a store of value more valuable and scarcer than gold itself.This overlaps with the third aspect of price prediction, namely technical analysis because it is by looking at historical market data that the technical analysts make their predictions about potential future trends, or patterns repeating themselves in the beautiful Fibonacci (Golden Ratio) fractal that some say is seen in the Bitcoin price cycles. And indeed, there are distinct patterns to be observed in the way Bitcoin price cycles play out, based on its mathematical design. However, when FA and TA concur, this is all fine, but sometimes they show a divergence, so past price action does not imply exact fractal-like repetition. Today’s fundamentals may be different, and therefore price action will also be different this time around.The upcoming halving of May 2020 will be the third for Bitcoin, the previous two being in 2012 and 2016, and although there were similarities in each past halving and the price action around it, there were also differences. Besides that, only two prior halvings is not really enough historic data to base a prediction on for the next big event. And the current imminent recession in the global economic picture is also unique compared to the previous occurrences. Having said that, there are some overall patterns that we can expect with the upcoming halving. After all, the fundamentals are much the same in regard to the actual design of the Bitcoin code itself. So let’s look into what we can expect for certain and what may be uncharted territory, because both sets of data exist. And experts will disagree on how to interpret the data too.For example experts like famous Bitcoin bull Willy Woo, in his recent Tweet this week says:“NEVER gone into a halvening in BEARISH price action, miners already capitulating adding sell volume. Historically we front run with a BULLISH setup, miner capitulating only after halvening when revenues are slashed. This is a unique setup. Quite bearish leading up to the event.” The analysis says that the Bitcoin halving is a major catalyst that always leads to the beginning of the next major bull market cycle. Both halvings showed a rally of 12-13 000% in price each time, although there were differences in the exact timing: Halving1: 513 days to rally 13 304% from pre-H bottom of $2.01 to post-H top of $270.Halving2: 1068 days to rally 12 168% from pre-H bottom of $164.01 to post-H top of $20 000.As you can see, there were similarities but also differences. And this time will also be the same...but different. Already Bitcoin has rallied around 380% since the bottom of $3100 in early 2019, which was 544 days before the next halving. A natural retrace in price occurs before the halving of around 50%. That’s where we are now in the cycle. We had an unusually fast pump since the bottom around $3100 earlier this year, and thus the strong retracement from $14 000 back down to $7500 at one point, almost 50%. But although the general pattern is repeating itself at each halving, they all have unique variations, so that’s why this time will be similar but different and we can’t generalize too much in our analysis. Theoretically though, we may now trade sideways – with volatile swings - until the halving in May 2020, six months away. We may still even fall down to earlier support at around $6 000, which is the break-even price for some miners (outside China), so don’t be surprised by that. Fundamentally miners indirectly control price. At certain prices it becomes unprofitable for small miners and they close down their rigs, or sell their vast hordes of Bitcoin to pay for expenses or lock in at least some small profit. This can end up pushing the price still lower, so watch out for this shakeout. Historically we don’t see new ATH (beyond $20 000) until several months after the halving. But statistically we can optimistically expect BTC price to gain another 12 000% from the bottom of $3 100. This would take the price to around $385 000, as mind blowing as it sounds. Yet this is exactly what happened after both previous halvings. Time-wise we’re looking at the next ATH to be around 500 days after the halving, which is Q4 of 2021, so just “hodl” guys. The logic is in the math. It’s built in to the code. Other than some fallout from the global recession, or some manipulation by the new influx of “traditional financial tools” like futures, margin trading, even Bakkt, etc, or some regulatory clampdown by the SEC (securities exchange commission), we can look forward to a post-halving price pump until late 2021, at which point we sell the top as it lands on the moon. I hope you have your ticket because I would love to see you there.This OC blog post published first here on Uptrennd, where you always get the freshest crypto news and insights first. For more details on the stats of the halvings, check out this very insightful post.
Wowzers! That is a sea of RED today! Why did I even open my portfolio? Haha. I jump on Uptrennd, you guys tell me how the market is doing based on the posts that I see... yet I still opened my portfolio to see my status? Why do I do that to myself? I feel like I am just torturing myself when I do that! I never trade. I buy and hold... so honestly I really never have a reason to check it but I check it almost daily still! Maybe I just like a good kick in the stomach first thing in the morning, a moment of mental torture?What about you guys? Do you check on your portfolio daily? Does it make you feel any better or worse? Or if you are a holder are you smart enough (or strong enough) not to look?I can image if you trade that checking would be super important but if you don't... do you feel like portfolio trackers are like a torture device some days? Like they just drive you crazy and do more harm than good? I mean, yes... it is nice when you open them up when the market is up, but I still wont sell these up and down movements that we are seeing. It would have to be something completely life changing to me to take the plunge and sell at this point... and believe me Uptrennd would shout that at my face if the market was that high!!! So... sometimes I wonder if I should remove this damn app from my phone altogether!I probably won't though... since clearly I am a glutton for punishment!What about you guys? Do you use a tracker? Do you look at it daily? Hourly? Do you feel like it would be better or worse if you didn't check it everyday?Let's hear some opinions and get my mind off the number I just saw!!!Image:Pixabay LicenseFree for commercial useNo attribution required
Hey Uptrenndians,One of Uptrennds biggest values is the Community and we have always strived to make sure there is a real community that want to grow together and move forward as one, this way we can build the best possible platform for everybody and we also appreciate your feedback and patience while we work on new features and fixing bugs of course. We see so many of you sharing Uptrennd content to other social media like Twitter/FB and Reddit however we have a challenge for you all! Why dont you help out your fellow Uptrenndian and start sharing their content too? :) This is a 3 part challenge and those who are left in the final part of the challenge will be in the running for a share of 3000 1UPPart 1 which is active right now!For 5 days share 3 posts every day from Uptrennd to one of these platforms and can only be these platforms.Twitter/Reddit/MindsYou must then post the links to your daily shares in the comments on this post below (Please do not make new comments for each link just edit and update your first comment) Only those who share 3 posts a day for 5 days will be able to part take in "Part 2" of the challenge so if you want to part take make sure your first 3 post is shared and all links are posted here by this Saturday at 8 am UTC, entries after this date and time will not be counted or included.As from the minute you post 3 links here your 5 days start and part one of this challenge ends next Friday.Last day of Part 1 is the 29/11/2019Rules for Challenge - Part 1:Content you are sharing must be OC (Original Content)You must share somebody else OC. (You can not share your own content/posts)3 posts minimum in 24 hours and links have to be shared in the comments below for them to count.When you share the content you must @ Uptrennd and @ the author of the post along with the project which the post is about. (if possible)Use these Hashtags, #Homeofcrypto #Uptrennd #1UPThe only platforms you can use are Twitter/Reddit and MindsDepending on the topic you are sharing, it would also be a good idea to use the relevant Hashtags with it too so if its a general Crypto post-use #Crypto #Blockchain but if it is just about Bitcoin or ETH then use #bitcoin, #ethereum and so on.Part 2 of the challenge will be revealed on the last day of Part 1.Can we get 50 RT/Likes on the Tweet below???? Wheres my community at on Twitter?? Wheres that Uptrennd love?!https://twitter.com/Uptrennd/status/1197228115002634242 Below i will leave an example of how we set up tweets and use @, # :) As you will see we @ Altcoin Buzz as it is their content and a great interview too! so we then @ the project which the interview is about.One of the main reason i am running this challenge is because it shows that Uptrennd is about Community and about helping one another grow to achieve the goals we have set ourselves.Nobody ever makes it by themselves so its good to know who you can lean on and when you can lean on them, we are more than just an online community! some of you have become friends and people i absolutely love to work alongside! Uptrennd is a big family that keeps growing! :)