Greetings Uptrennd traders, Bitcoin has not seen such low volatility since April 2019, over a year ago. The current lack of usual massive price swings that Bitcoin is known for, may have some investors and traders wondering what’s up with the king of crypto, because it certainly isn’t the price. However, this is just the calm before the storm, so stack up on Satoshis, buy all the Bitcoin you can right now, because the halving is behind us and the next bull run to the moon is imminent.
Perhaps I’m just a perma-bull, but I have so much faith in Bitcoin’s future since I’ve studied its past. And one can see patterns and cycles in the Bitcoin price history over the past 11 years. Without fail, Bitcoin has followed each of the previous three halvings with a two year climb in price, which finishes of with a “blow-off top” lasting no more than a few days. In other words it’s easier to time your buy-in than your cash out.
We have had months to accumulate some Satoshis (fractions of a Bitcoin), as price returned to sub-$10k levels, but we may only have days to catch the top, when price peaks before dumping once more, as it did in December 2017. I had just learned about Bitcoin back then and saw it all going down, pun intended. But I had no idea of technical analysis (TA) or price history or anything about Bitcoin, so I was unable to benefit. But now I’m more experienced, having watched and learned over the past two and a half years.
And what I see is that each halving is followed by a two year bull run or climb in price, but that each consecutive cycle the bull run and price climb takes longer, moves slower, and in fact does not reach quite as high as previously by percentage in gains. Massive gains are inevitably there as price climbs over 1000% or10x, for example, but the percentage of overall gain from the low to the next all time high (ATH) is less. In other words the curve flattens slightly over the years of Bitcoin’s existence, particularly since we are climbing to exponentially higher price levels in literal dollar terms.
To go from 10 to 100 or from 100 to 1000, is both 10x, but the climb is harder the second time since the numbers are literally much higher. So as Bitcoin goes from its current $10k up to the next ATH around $100k, the climb may take longer than before and it may not produce such a volcanic push upward in price at the blow-off top, for those few days before the retracement. Therefore we can learn a huge amount from “looking left” or analyzing the past price action on the chart, but each time will be slightly different, despite following a similar pattern.
Add to that the fact that every four years, when price goes through its cycles, the socio-political as well as economic conditions on the planet are quite different. This time around we have an unprecedented situation on the entire planet, so no one can predict exactly how this coming bull run will play out. Current economic conditions could vastly affect Bitcoin’s price movement. Also the cryptocurrency industry has matured somewhat and there are many more aspects to it compared to the past. Mainstream investment, with mainstream economic tools, like futures, options, leverage, margin, defi lending, staking and all of that, has redesigned the trading field hugely. Much of price movement is now affected by these tools that traders now use. Add also the constant printing of USDTether by the billions of dollars and we can see that the Bitcoin ecosystem is different this time, even though the code and cycles are the same.
So despite the current flat line in Bitcoin volatility, which traders find very boring and unprofitable, I am a firm believer in the long term inevitability of Bitcoin’s price surge over the coming two years. Timing the top can be almost impossible but I plan to continue tracking the price and hopefully by then I will be even more experienced and able to pre-empt the time to sell. Otherwise anywhere above $100k is fine as a selling point for a good 10x profit.
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a form of electronic cash. It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user-to-user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.