(The red and green arrows are the Aurox Indicator and they recommend a buy or a sell. Red indicates where you should sell and green indicates a buy zone. Pretty simple indicator but rather effective if I do say so myself.)
Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to my daily look into the wild world known as Bitcoin. Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up after a slight pullback.I have a feeling I know the reason for the drop and I will discuss that further later. The bulls were in charge all weekend but do the bears have an ace up their sleeve for this week? Ive been seeing certain alt coins literally tearing it up with 100% gains over night. The market is alive and well. Lets take a look at the charts.
We did drop over the last few hours. No big deal. We are still well above 50k and we have the luxury of an abundance of support. The 4hr 50 MA coupled with the 4hr cloud are all within close proximity to each other. Meaning if we cannot recover the recent upward trend we lost we could visit one of the supports I just mentioned. 52,100 seems to be a good place to look for support first and foremost. That is if we drop within the next 4 hrs.
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I see a reason for the drop this a.m. and if I had to come up with an excuse it would have to be the nearly 2k gap we created over the weekend. This gap was below us and gaps tend to fill rather quickly upon creation. I know that may not seem like the case as we left multiple gaps below the candles on our rip to 58k. So not all gaps are created equal. The gap from this last weekend filled within hours of forming. That is why I enjoy trading gaps. They give a somewhat reliable trade to start the week off right. If I had to give you a percentage of how often a gap does fill after forming. Within the first 24 hours its around 90%, 5 days is around 8% and then 2 % have yet to fill. This is just rough estimates so do with this info what you will. The reliability of trading a gap gives traders an edge against a market where an edge is rare. I created a video on gap trading and its available on my YT channel..
MACD on the 4hr looks very bearish at the moment which may explain the heavy looking red candle we are currently witnessing. I do see 50k as a line in the sand as the support is so abundant in this area if we do lose that support it becomes resistance as a rule. That is trading 101 right there. So that means the bulls need to wake their butts up and flip the bears on their back. Either way I support a rise or fall to be honest. If you believe in BTC a drop is a gift. Cheaper BTC is always wanted. At least by me. If the price goes up I get profit. If it drops I get to buy cheaper BTC again. Either way I win...
We can split hairs on whether we reached the top or not. Im not concerned with that. We had a great run so far and with all the profit accrued I will be more than ready if a dip does present itself. I will use all the profit I made this run preparing for the next one. In the meantime keep your eyes on the charts and for Heavens sake learn to use risk management. I can help you develop a trading strategy. Just message me for details. Every trader needs a plan. Like Buffet says, "A fool with a plan will do better than a scholar with no plan." Its absolutely true.
At the end of a horrible week (at least for me) last week we surged 2k stoking the community into predicting 60k was in reach. We didn't quite make it there and that is fine. We lost the support we enjoyed since late January. We did lose the same support briefly but it flipped back to support so fast I note the event but it doesnt negate the trend itself in my opinion. As you can see the trend extends much farther than the few candles we spent below the trend support back on the 7th of this month. Now we are below the trend support and things look strong still from my point of view. We literally just bounced from the 4hr 50 MA and that is a good sign. As long as we remain above that 4hr 50 MA I am bullish. But I must say I am making sure that stop loss is set. You dont always need to hit the top on every trade. That is a bad strategy. The best thing to do is ensuring you get the profit you desire without sacrificing your profit waiting on the top to show. Its too tough to sell at the top so sell before and be happy with your profit. I think I may have sold the top 1 time in my 2 years on the charts. No need to be that perfectionist. Be happy with what you take.
I have very few alts but one of them literally exploded this a.m. (Thanks Crypto.com!) I have a bag of CRO that jumped nicely on the announcement of a 70% coin burn. I have my own opinions on coin burns but if my tokens gain 50% overnight Im okay with that part I guess lol. Either way I dont rely on alts as a rule. The popping we are witnessing is great and I do trade alts. But my goal as far as that goes is to make more Bitcoin. Nothing more. People ask me which alts I believe in and there are a few I do think can and likely will make it. Bitcoin first and foremost. I like Monero due to the privacy aspect, Litecoin has always been up there in terms of being a reliable alt. ETH is so hot right now but the fees are outrageous. I normally focus on BTC during these analyses but alts have just been so hot. ADA gets honorable mention along with Polkadot etc. But none of these coins have the history of Bitcoin. Even Bitcoin is only roughly 13 years old but many of the alts we see in the top 100 are less than 2 years old. So Im sticking with a proven winner. Catch a few alt pumps occasionally and dump the profit into BTC. That is just a part of my strategy. I hope you all have a great day. Make good choices my friends and always remember WTFDIK??
TLDR: Bears are awake this morning to fill the 2k gap we created this weekend. 4hr 50 MA held as support. Wake your butts up Bulls!
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