(The red and green arrows are the Aurox Indicator and they recommend a buy or a sell. Red indicates where you should sell and green indicates a buy zone. Pretty simple indicator but rather effective if I do say so myself.)
Rise and shine ladies and gentlemen... We have a decentralized cryptocurrency to analyze! Welcome to the exciting world of Bitcoin... Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up and I have fallen into one of my old habits of jotting down my ideas on the chart itself. Short term outlook for BTC may not be as good as it was 6 weeks ago but like I told my clients in my TA course if the markets go up we get profit. If they drop we get opportunity (to buy BTC at a discount) Either way we win. But where do we go from here on the charts? Lets have a chat about that, shall we?
I see that we have pretty much established a right triangle. What does that tell us? Well 30k is support while resistance is constantly descending. With that in mind we know that if resistance is descending that means lower highs. Which is traditionally not a good sign for the bulls. At least not a good short term signal. From past experience most of the triangles such as this one play out with a dump. I hope I am wrong but the writing is seemingly on the wall.
Watching the charts this a.m. I am wondering if I even complete the analysis with BTC still above 30k. Things look to be on shaky ground. If we do lose the support of this age old triangle (its not that old but its been the most prominent figure on the charts over the past few weeks) just below the 30k support is the daily 50 MA (short orange line I drew) I did this to show you possible support in the event of a drop that is. 30k is still in play for now so that leaves the daily 50 MA as a life line we will likely need in the event of a dump. One thing I like to do is look for possible landing spots in the event of a drop materializing. This helps me set my stop loss which is a huge part of my strategy.
MACD is bearish now on the 4hr time frame. Like I said earlier the writing is seemingly on the wall folks. Some people are clinging to the recent bull run. I guess they are in disbelief that is could actually be over. Even I have had trouble convincing myself. But Im here today to tell you that if you disagree with my analysis that is fine. Just set a stop loss. Just in case I am right. I hate to be the bearer of bearish news. I love the bull run. Business seriously picks up for me at that time. Nobody seems to want to learn to trade in a bear market (not calling current market bear quite yet but I do notice that the bull run saw my members increase nearly 300% and now its pretty dry) I understand the drop may take the wind out of some of you bulls sails but learning to trade in a bear market is much more beneficial that learning to trade when there are nothing but green candles. Anyone can hit a homerun when they pitch underhanded to you. That is a bull market. The bear market is the curve ball that you need skill to hit. Once you master the bear market the bull market is easy peasy.
We may take another bounce from the 30k level. We still have plenty of time if this triangle isnt done yet. We could spend literally til valentines day before we break out. If this were to play out alts may see more time in the sun. Many alts have been performing well since BTC cooled off and that is similar to what happened in 2018 after the BTC pump. There are obviously differences between the 2 pumps but there are also similarities. Not every single alt is going off at this time. Back in 2018 it seemed like you could toss a dart at the computer screen and hit an alt that was profitable. (dont throw a dart at your screen. It creates more trouble than its worth let me tell you) This current bull run that may or may not be over didnt see as many alts perform as they did in 2018. In my opinion this shows that the market is maturing and not every alt coin is looked at as the next Bitcoin! Or the next Ethereum! Im so sick of hearing that. We are hanging onto the support at 30k by the hair on our chinny chin chin so set that stop loss. I hope you all have a fantastic day folks. Make good choices!!! Please! And always remember WTFDIK???
TLDR: Bears are making themselves at home on the chart. A drop is likely but not 100% so set a stop loss just in case. If we lose 30k the daily 50 MA is my next landing spot. (daily 50 MA is labeled on the chart)
Here is a link to my YouTube Channel. It has a preview of the course I provide and I plan to grow it a lot this year. My new years resolution was to make this YT channel blow up! Here is the link https://www.youtube.com/
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