Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to another edition of Bitcoin daily... Today I have the 4hr time frame pulled up after a little consolidation over night. I think noobs all around the globe will be thankful for some stability after the week we have had so far. We are still clinging to former 2020 glory. 34k is not bad yall. Especially considering that 10 months ago we were below 4k. Can the bulls buck the bears today? Lets take a look at the charts.
First thing I want to bring up is we lost the 4hr cloud. That is bearish folks. The 4hr time frame is not quite as significant IMO compared to the daily but none the less being below the cloud on any time frame can be considered bearish. The cloud is not the ultimate deciding factor in market direction, but the writing is on the walls folks. The path of least resistance seems to be down at the moment.... I will go into more depth.
We dropped below the 4hr 50 MA (orange line) recently. When that happened we retested it 2 times before ultimately consolidating below the indicator. I believe this was sort of the bulls way of throwing in the (short term) towel so to speak. Im not saying we go down forever. LOL. Im simply saying as time passes the bears seem to accumulate and as a result I will be adjusting my strategy to take advantage of a drop (if it does happen) of course sticking with my usual routine of risk management.
I did a sentiment analysis yesterday and that is where the bulls are still alive and well folks. The overwhelming majority (last time I checked) was bullish. Does that mean we go up from here? Not necessarily. Its just nice to get an idea of how the people feel about the current market atmosphere. I believe sentiment analysis to be a great addition to technical analysis. I never rely on sentiment alone but added to my daily routine I believe it can be quite useful.
I drew a triangle we have been consolidating inside of for a day or so. It looks like a continuation pattern to me folks. If that is the case we need to hope 30k holds again or its likely to dump to at least 28300 USD. I see that the candles were rejected when they tried to reenter the 4hr cloud as well. We were first rejected by the 4hr 50 MA when we tried to retake the former support. Then we dumped a bit more. Fell through the 4hr cloud. When we dumped out the bottom of said cloud we retested the bottom of the cloud which is no longer support since we dropped below the indicator. Its now resistance and it showed this over the last three 4hr candles. These are the reasons I believe we may dip even more.
Ultimately I am still optimistic. Bitcoin proved to me its a worth while investment over the last 10 months of solid growth. Institutions are now interested in Bitcoin. If you couple that with the US printing mass amounts of the US dollar that is a recipe for Bitcoin to rise. When in doubt zoom out they say. Just take a look at the weekly and you will breathe a little easier. I have been in this space long enough to realize that the recent drop was just another day in the exciting life of Bitcoin. Ive only been here 3 years but 2017 taught me all I needed to know. This run I was ready and I am satisfied with how I played the market over the last year (really 3 years) The possibility of a bear market may bother some of you that are noobs but dont let it bug you. What goes up must come down. But tell me this (quote from Todd B) "When hasnt Bitcoin bounced back?" Something to consider. I hope you all have a great day.. Make good choices folks. And always remember WTFDIK??
TLDR: Bears are looking to take us down another notch IMO. After being rejected from the 4hr 50 MA and then being rejected by the 4hr cloud when we tried to retake both former supports we were handily rejected. To me that says the writing is on the wall. Continuation pattern on the chart suggests another leg down in the next 8-12 hours I expect.
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